Is 2010 a Mistake?
Posted on 27 May 2009 by Ján Montoya
It looks as if 2010 is almost a forgone conclusion to get marriage equality back on the ballot. I received two emails yesterday, one from EQCA and Camp Courage, showing their strong support for it. They gave well summarized arguments but the arguments NOT to do it were noticeably downplayed or absent.
Ask any politico and she will agree that the most effective way to change voter’s mind is having a personal conversation with them. Voter canvassing was a tool used very successfully by the Obama campaign in establishing that dialogue. But to create and implement a canvassing program is highly laborious and time intensive.
I’ve been working with Vote Equality, the LA Gay and Lesbian voter canvassing program, and I’ve seen firsthand what it takes to get voter outreach moving forward. You have to cut turf (target the areas to be canvassed), prep that info, and then scout locations even before you can train and send out a single volunteer. Then there is the data collection and entry afterward to see how effective you were.
Statewide 300,000 voters will need to change their minds in order counteract Prop 8. In LA County alone we need to change 70,000 voters’ minds or around 23%. It will be at least 4-6 months before we have a strong effective state-wide canvassing program.
I’m going to layout a scenario that will give context to the enormous challenge the LGBT community faces. Let’s say in 5 months we have a solid running state-wide canvassing program and have persuaded 10,000 people in the process. We still have 12 months to change 60,000 people. That equates to 5,000 people per month which mean you will need to have 3-4 times as many conversations per month. That’s 15-20,000 interactions.
That’s a lot of doors to knock on especially when you consider that on average a person will be knocking on 30-40 doors in a 2 hour canvassing period and will talk with on average 3 people. Keep in mind that some of those will already be for us and those that aren’t won’t necessarily change their minds.
Now, let’s say you could do all of this in one 2 hour canvassing each month. You’d need 5,833 canvassers in LA County to do make those 3 connections apiece. 5,833 canvassers that need to be trained, fed and directed. And that is not taking into account the turf cutting, canvass prep, etcetera.
Add to these challenges voter resistance. The closer you get to election day the harder it is to change hearts and mind as voters become more resistant to persuasive political solicitations. In fact, these solicitations sometimes have the opposite intended effect.
Do you understand my concern?
Some have chided me for what they see as fatalistic accounting. Many of these passionate individuals have spoken on the principle of our urgent need for civil rights. However, passion and principles by themselves don’t win campaigns. You need a well thought out strategy and the superb implementation of it. And of course, the time with which to do it in.
This doesn’t mean we throw our hands up in defeat. If we shoot for 2012 we need to canvass now. If 2010 is chosen I am not without hope as the LGBT community proved in the latter 2 months of the No on Prop 8 campaign it could mobilize quickly. But if we lose, the irony of losing in 2008 for starting too late and in 2010 for starting too soon will be disastrous.
Tags | 2010, LB Equality, Prop 8
About the Author
Ján Montoya
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Long Beach native Ján Montoya has been involved with social justice and activism since 1991 when he began volunteering for the Legal Aid Fo |
Yes. We’re already weary and depressed from fighting for the last year and losing. Add another year of really heavy duty work followed by another loss and I’ll have no energy left for 2012. Give us a little breathing room and time to spend with the families we’re fighting for. Then we will have the time to get to all of those 300,000 and really talk with them instead of having to make a daily quota. How will those folks feel about our conversation if I’m looking at my watch. Good communication will take time, and we just don’t have it between now and 11/10. Let’s aim for 2012, PLEASE!
To proceed with 2010 would be putting the cart in front of the horse. I know everyone is angry and anxious for marriage equality but there is so much more to consider. We need to evolve into a efficient machine, develop leaders, and quite frankly, get our shit together. Getting people to come out on the streets and march is one thing – getting people to go door to door is another. I have had very little success recruiting people to do this – we need time to inspire, prepare, and lead.
That being said, while I will disagree with a 2010 approach, I will get on board and prepare for battle.
Seems to be a VERY tough call. As we know many have a very short attention span and the tendancy to take things for granted. I can understand the desire to want to continue with the momentum but also understand that a loss in 2010 could be devastating….. Whatever the decision is we ALL need to commit to the movement and not ASSUME the work that is being done by a brave, dedicated few is enough for all of us!
Well if we lose in 2010, we try again in 2012. If we lose in 2012, we try again in 2014…..!
As I’ve laid out, the amount of energy and resources to canvass is going to be enormous. A sustained 12-14 month campaign is going to take its toll and we will see supporter burn-out. People will not be as inclined to offer their time and money to 3 back-to- back campaigns which means that the earliest then would be a 2016 election since it’s unlikely that anyone would back another midterm ballot initiative.